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中文摘要：
大量研究表明气候变暖已是不争的事实。众所周知，气温变化与生物活动息息相关，在目前动植物急剧减少与灭绝的背景下，在自然因素与人为因素双重作用下，未来气温的变化趋势成为研究热点。本文根据山东省117个气象站1970-2007年的气温资料，首先利用分形理论中R／S分析法，分析山东省气温变化是否存在趋势性成分。其次利用GIS技术研究山东省近40a气温数值及分布的变化特点。结果显示：H指数不等于0．5的概率为100％，表明山东省气温存在趋势性成分。其中春季、夏季及冬季气温将继续保持过去上升的趋势，等温线分布逐渐具有无规则的特点且局部小气候分布将增多，由此看见，人为因素对气温影响逐渐增大；秋季未来气温出现反差的概率较高。
英文摘要：
Many researches have proved that temperature has ascended. It is known that temperature is closely related with living beings. Because the amounts of plants and animals are reduced sharply, the trend of temperature becomes the research hotspot under the natural and human impacts. Based on the temperature data of 117 meteorological stations from 1970-2007 in Shandong Province, R/S analysis in fractal theory is adopted to research the changing trend in temperature. Then GIS technology is employed to study the characteristics of temperature change in recent 40 years. The results show that the chance in which H index is not equivalent to 0.5 is 100%, demonstrating the temperature of this province is changing trend. Temperatures of spring, summer and winter will keep a rising trend. The distribution of isothermals turns to be random and the local microclimates will develop which can be partly explained by human influence.
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