中文摘要：

在油和煤气的井的八个 casing 失败模式和 32 个风险因素在这份报纸被给。根据影响度的定量分析和风险因素的出现概率，为失败模式的 Borda 计数与 Borda 方法被获得。失败模式的风险索引从 Borda 矩阵被导出。基于支持向量机器(SVM ) ，一个 casing 生活预言模型被建立。在预言模型，当输入向量和 casing 生活被定义为产量向量，八个风险索引被定义。理想的模型参数与 casing 失败从 19 口井与训练集合被决定。casing 生活预言软件作为一个预言者与 SVM 模型一起被开发。有 casing 失败的 60 口井的剩余生活用软件被预言，然后与实际 casing 生活相比。比较结果证明与 SVM 模型一起的 casing 生活预言软件有高精确性。

英文摘要：

Eight casing failure modes and 32 risk factors in oil and gas wells are given in this paper. According to the quantitative analysis of the influence degree and occurrence probability of risk factors, the Borda counts for failure modes are obtained with the Borda method. The risk indexes of failure modes are derived from the Borda matrix. Based on the support vector machine （SVM）, a casing life prediction model is established. In the prediction model, eight risk indexes are defined as input vectors and casing life is defined as the output vector. The ideal model parameters are determined with the training set from 19 wells with casing failure. The casing life prediction software is developed with the SVM model as a predictor. The residual life of 60 wells with casing failure is predicted with the software, and then compared with the actual casing life. The comparison results show that the casing life prediction software with the SVM model has high accuracy.