中文摘要：

正当科学界对强震短临预报研究一筹莫展的时候，大自然送来了一份珍贵的礼物——某些强震在发生前数十小时出现的“震前扰动”现象．本文依据“武汉大地测量国家野外科学观测研究站”Lacoste—ET重力仪观测发现汶川大地震前约48小时的“震前扰动”现象和随后的一系列研究，分析了地震预报反对派代表人物Geller所谓“地震是自组织临界状态”的论点，讨论了有关强震的“地点问题”和“时间问题”、以及强震短临预报研究的战略思想．

英文摘要：

Scientists have had no efficient method for short-term prediction of impeding great earthquakes, however, some significant tremors were found before some great earthquakes. According to observation of tremors 48 hours before the great Wenchuan earthquake recorded by Lacoste-ET gravimeter at National field observatory of Geodesy of Wuhan and following studies on the seismic phenomenon, we initially discuss the opinions of Geller that Earth is in a state of self-organized criticality where any small earthquake has some probability of cascading into a large event and thus individual great earthquakes are probably inherently unpredictable. Then we discuss the issues of specification of the time, location of earthquake within stated limits. At last we put forward a strategic thinking for a short term prediction of impending great earthquake.