中文摘要：

暴雪是黑龙江省常见的灾害性天气之一，基于1970～2006年黑龙江省78个市（县）的逐日降雪资料，对暴雪初、终日分布规律，暴雪的时间、空间分布特征进行分析，采用信息扩散理论计算了各市（县）发生不同暴雪日数的概率风险估计值，并结合GIS技术进行风险区划．研究表明：黑龙江省暴雪初始日期和终止日期37a来变化不大，初始日出现在10月上、中旬，终止日出现在4月的中、下旬；暴雪日数集中在11、12、3月，尤以11月最多．年总暴雪日数的年际变化呈递增趋势；空间上，北部大兴安岭、黑河地区，中北部伊春地区，东北部佳木斯地区年平均暴雪日数多于其他地区．黑龙江省暴雪异常年与厄尔尼诺年有很好的相关性，厄尔尼诺年及前、后年是暴雪异常年频发时期．基于信息扩散理论，以黑龙江省78个市（县）1970—2006年的年暴雪日数为基础，分别对各市（县）发生不同暴雪日的概率风险进行计算，获得出现某一暴雪日数的风险情况为：暴雪日数为≤18d时，全省均为1a一遇到2a一遇的中、高风险区；暴雪日数为≥20d、≤24d时，北部以4a一遇、2a一遇的轻、中风险为主，西南部、南部以4a三遇，1a一遇的中、高风险为主；暴雪日数为28d、30d时，全省几乎为4a三遇至2a一遇的中风险区；暴雪日数〉30d全省均为轻风险区，可视为无风险．

英文摘要：

Snowstorm is one of the most frequent disastrous weather in Heilongjiang Province. In this study, the temporal and spatial characteristics of snowstorm are discussed done in this paper. The day and its risk division is to-day snow data in 78 municipalities （counties） of Heilongjiang Province from 1970 to 2006 were analyzed by integrating GIS technique and probability risk days of different type of snowstorm calculated from information diffuse theory. The results show that： 1） the starting and ending dates of the snowstorm less shift during the 37 years. The first snowstorm appears in early- middle October and the last snowstorm appears in middle-late April. On the whole, snowstorm con- centrates in November, December and May, especially in November. 2）temporally, the total days of snowstorm increase year by year. Spatially, the average days of snowstorm in Da Hinggan Mountains and Heihe District in the north, in Yiehun District in the middle-north and in Jiamusi District in the northeast are more than that in other regions of the province. 3）there is a good correlation between snowstorm anomaly year and E1 Nino year in Heilongjiang Province. Snowstorm anomaly year takes place in E1 Nino year or immediately before and after E1 Nino year. 4） based on the information diffusion theory and the numbers of snowstorm days in the 78 municipalities （counties） in Heilongjiang Province from 1970 to 2006, the snowstorm risks of different probabilities were calculated for municipalities （counties）. It is found that when the snowstorm days equal to or less than 18 d, the probability is once a year or once every two years, and the province is in middle or high risk. When the snowstorm days equal to or less than 20 d, the probability is once a year or once every two years, and the province is in middle or high risk. When total snowstorm days are ≥20 d and 424 d, the probability is once every two years or every four years in the north, where the risk is slight or middle mainly, and the probab