从企业家及团队风险、产品风险、技术风险、市场风险、退出风险、政策及产业风险和区域影响力7个方面构建了投资项目风险评估指标体系,进而基于云模型和Theil指数提出了一种风险评估方法。该方法先将指标值转化为云模型,然后利用云的特征数和Theil指数计算指标权重,再以此权重为基础进行云模型集结,从而对各方案进行综合评估和择优。最后,通过实例应用检验了该方法的可行性和有效性。
A risk evaluation index system is established for assessing investment projects from seven respects, such as the entrepreneur and team risk, product risk, technology risk, market risk, exit risk, policy and industry risks and regional influence, and a risk assessment approach based on the cloud model and Theil index is proposed. The evaluation indexes are transformed into cloud models, the weights of all indexes are calculated by using the cloud characteristics and Theil indexes, and on the basis of the weights, the cloud models are aggregated for deriving the comprehensive evaluation values of each alternative, and then the best alternative can be selected. Finally, the application of this method shows that it is feasible and effective.