中文摘要：

以淮河流域为对象，在假设Z—I关系法、平均校准法、最优插值法、卡尔曼滤波和最优插值联合校准法以及卡尔曼滤波校准法等五种降水定量估测模式对于不同的降水类型而言能力有所差异的基础上，通过对前期降水定量估测结果误差变化的分析，以统计方差为判别标准来选取最佳的估算方法，进行多种估测结果的集成。对2007年7月上句降水过程的应用结果分析表明：在降水强度较小的情况下，该方法是一种有效的集成方法，能够提高降水定量估测的能力；但是在降水强度较大的情况下，集成效果不佳．

英文摘要：

In the Huaihe River Basin, the estimated rainfall values were consensused from the methods of Z-I relation, average calibration, optimum interpolation, Kalman filter and optimum interpolation and Kalman filter based on the analysis of error, under the supposal that those errors of five estimate values were different in different precipitation pattern. Results of the analysis of the rainfall cases in the early of July 2007 indicate that the method of consensus is useful and the ability of estimation is improved when the value of rainfall is small, but when the rainfall is heavy the result is unsatisfactory.