中文摘要：

基于实测数据对牵引馈线有功功率和无功功率进行统计分析，研究行车密度、单台机车功率的概率分布规律，据此提出描述牵引馈线有功功率和无功功率分布的概率模型。给出利用模拟退火算法进行参数辨识的方法和步骤，并结合实例进行求解和验证。研究结果证明，该牵引馈线负荷概率模型可准确描述牵引馈线有功功率和无功功率的统计特性。

英文摘要：

Statistical analysis on the active and reactive power of the traction feeder is made on the basis of measured data. According to the probability distribution law of the train density and power of the single electric locomotive, the active and reactive power distribution probability model of the traction feeder is established. The method and steps of identifying parameters by the simulated annealing algorithm are given. An actual example is calculated for verification. The proposed traction feeder load probability model can be used to describe the statistical characteristics of the active and reactive power of the traction feeder accurately.