根据IPCC提供的方法,对中国30个省市区1997年到2011年间的CO2排放水平进行了测算,并在环境库兹涅茨曲线的基础上,引入城市化因素,基于东中西三大区域的面板数据,定量分析了城市化、经济增长对区域CO2排放的影响。研究发现,城市化与经济增长对排放的影响存在明显的区域差异,其中经济增长是影响中国排放的主导因素;东中部区域经济增长与CO2排放存在倒U型关系,而EKC假说在西部区域不成立。研究还表明,东部区域的FDI更多地属于市场寻求型资本,有利于CO2减排,而中部区域的FDI则属于资源寻求型,会加剧当地的CO2排放。
With the method of IPCC, we estimate the emission level of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2011 in China, and on the basis of Environmental Kuznets Curve we introduce the factor of ur- banization, based on the penal data of eastern, central and western areas, we make a quantitative a nalysis on the effect of urbanization, economic growth on the regional emission. It shows that there is an obvious regional differences about the effect of urbanization and economic on emission. Eco nomic growth is the main influencing factor. And the economic growth has an inverted U shaped re- lationship with carbon dioxide emissions in the eastern and central regions. The hypothesis of EKC does not exist in western area. The FDI in the eastern area belongs to market-seeking capital, it is beneficial for emission reduction. While FDI in the central region is resource--seeking which aggra- vating the local carbon dioxide emission.