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中文摘要：
为解决不确定信息条件下船舶值班驾驶员（OOW）操作可靠性量化问题,以认知可靠性和失误分析方法 （CREAM）为基础,采用模糊集合（FS）、贝叶斯网络（BN）和证据推理（ER）算法对多源粗糙观测数据进行处理,构建一个改进的CREAM模型。用该模型对长江特定场景下驾驶员操作可靠性进行量化。结果显示,驾驶员认知行为控制模式为战术型,失误概率为3.40×10-3。数据对比验证和模型灵敏度分析表明,结果合理,模型稳定。
英文摘要：
In order to analyze operation reliability of ship OOW in an uncertainty situation,based on CREAM,a modified CREAM model was built,which combined with FS theory,BN and ER to cope with the multi-source rough observation data. The model was employed to quantify the operation reliability of OOW on a ship sailing on Yangtze River in a given scenario. The output of the model shows that the cognitive control mode is tactical and the error rate is 3. 40 × 10- 3. Data comparing with other two typical methods and sensitivity analysis show,that the result is reasonable and the model is robust.
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