中文摘要：

基于1950—2007年黄河利津站水沙数据，采用Mann—Kendall检验以及Mann-Whitney-Pettitt（MWP）与贝氏变点分析方法来分析黄河入海水沙通量变化规律，结果表明：黄河全年入海径流通量与泥沙通量分别以-8．1139亿m^3/a和-．2285亿t/a速率显著减少，汛期变化幅度大于非汛期，尤以泥沙通量为甚；全年以及汛期和非汛期入海径流通量与泥沙通量时序均存在显著转折，且各自变点出现时间不完全一致，全年入海径流通量与泥沙通量时序转折分别发生于1968年、1985年、2002年和1968年、1985年、1996年；入海水沙通量变化趋势与时序变点与流域自然因素变化与人类活动影响密切相关，部分变点出现时间与人类活动介入相吻合。

英文摘要：

This paper addressed long-term change characteristics of runoff and sediment fluxes into the sea from the Yellow River based on runoff and sediment load observed at Lijin hydrological station from 1950 to 2007. The Mann-Kendall statistic test was used to estimate the significance of long-term trends in the runoff and sediment time series, and the change point of runoff and sediment time series was determined by the nonparametric Mann-Whitney-Pittitt test and the Bayesian analysis approach. The results show that annual runoff and sediment fluxes change negatively over time at rates of - 0. 8114 billion m^3/a and - 0. 0223 billion t/a, respectively. Trend lines have steeper slope during flood season than low water season, especially for the sediment flux. Different significant change points are detected in the runoff and sediment time series. The change points of runoff occurred in 1968, 1985 and 2002, and those of sediment flux in 1968, 1985 and 1996. The negative long-term change trend and the occurrence of change points are highly associated to natural variation and human activities in the Yellow River basin. The occurrence time of some change points accords even with man-made events.