中文摘要：

电力变压器在长期运行过程中，其内部绝缘会逐渐老化直至寿命终止，在此期间，热点温度是影响变压器绝缘寿命的最关键因素。为此，笔者统计并建立了影响变压器热点温度的两个最重要因素：负载系数及环境温度的变化模型，通过Ornstein-Uhlenbeck过程对这两个因素在变化过程中存在的随机性进行了模拟。最后，基于IEEE负载导则提供的等值老化模型．利用蒙特卡洛法分析讨论了理想与实际情况下变压器绝缘的年寿命损失，由此实现对变压器使用年限的预测。

英文摘要：

During a transformer is the power transformer＇s service period, the key factor that influences the insulation life of hot-spot temperature. In this paper, statistical models of load factor and ambient temperature, which are the two most important parameters influencing the hot-spot temperature, are established. Moreover, the stochastic behaviors of the load factor and ambient temperature are simulated through the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Based on the equivalent aging model from the IEEE loading guide, annual life losses of transformer insulation under both ideal and practical conditions are analyzed via Monte-Carlo simulation to forecast transformer service life.