中文摘要：

气候变化是全球变化的重要部分，它可以改变区域乃至全球的水文循环的现状，本文以鄱阳湖流域为定量评价了气候变化对该区域水文循环的影响。文章首先分析了鄱阳湖流域1973年～2002年间的气候变化，在此基础上构建了如果气候变化按照目前的趋势发展未来可能出现的3种气候情景，最后应用陆地表面模型VIC水循环模式模拟了不同情景下的径流变化，结果表明如果气候变化按照目前的趋势发展，鄱阳湖流域的水量30年、60年、90年后（相对于1983年）将可能增加11．7％、25．08％和39．06％，而且因为径流的增加幅度最大的情况恰好出现在每年径流峰值时段（汛期），所以鄱阳湖发生洪灾的危险性将可能增大。研究气候变化背景下鄱阳湖流域水文要素的变化及其趋势对于该区域水文水资源的开发利用、规划管理有着重要的现实意义。

英文摘要：

Climate variability has a considerable impact on the hydrological cycle on regional and continental scales, or even global scale. This paper conducts a case study to assess the impacts of climate change on regional hydrological cycle in Poyang Lake Basin. Poyang Lake basin is geographically situated between 23° and 31° North latitude, 113° and 118° East longitude. It is composed of Poyang Lake, five rivers and their watersheds. Poyang Lake connects Yangtze River and the five rivers which pass through it before flowing into Yangtze River. The total area of the basin is more than 160,000 km^2, and the region is prone to flood disaster. Therefore, it is important to know about key hydrological characteristics. Distributed hydrological models are often used to investigate basin water resources. The variable infiltration capacity （VIC） is a hydrologic-based macroscale land surface model and has been developed at University of Washington and Princeton University. The variable infiltration capacity （VIC） is designed for application at horizontal resolutions ranging from fractional to multiple degrees latitude by longitude. This model was run over Poyang Lake Basin at 8 km resolution. The input data of VIC model include catchment characteristics data, soil data, climate data and vegetation data. This study also demonstrates how remote sensing datasets are used for hydrologic modeling, such as using SRTM DEM for topographic characteristics, using AVHRR data for land use, using MODIS data for land use and leaf etc. Climate change is any long-term significant change in the expected patterns of average weather of a specific region over an appropriately significant period of time. The fluctuations of temperature and rainfall in the Poyang Lake Basin are studied according to climate records over a 30-year span （from 1973 to 2002）. The result shows the rainfall increases by an annual average of 7mm, the maximum and minimal daytime temperatures increase by an average of 0.377℃ and 0.276 ℃ respectively every d