中文摘要：

目的东北地区是中国重要的粮食生产基地，冷害、干旱、涝害是造成该地区玉米产量不稳定的主要气象灾害，本文旨在准确、定量评估东北玉米不同发育阶段和生育期主要气象灾害风险，为区域农业生产规划、气象灾害的预防和减轻提供科学依据。方法基于自然灾害风险理论和农业气象灾害风险形成机理，利用构建的东北玉米发育阶段主要气象灾害风险评价指标体系、发育阶段及生育期主要气象灾害风险评价模型，对播种—七叶、七叶—抽雄、抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟4个发育阶段冷害、干旱、涝害的危险性，承灾体的暴露性和脆弱性，人类防灾减灾能力4要素分别进行评价，对发育阶段及生育期主要气象灾害风险进行评估，利用系统聚类方法对评价结果进行区划。结果发育阶段冷害危险性大致由西向东递增，基本呈带状分布，生育早期，冷害危险性中高值区主要分布在长白山地和黑龙江东南部；生育后期，冷害危险性中高值区主要位于长白山地、黑龙江研究区东南及北部地区。4个发育阶段干旱危险性均大致由东向西或由东南向西北递增，呈带状分布。发育阶段涝害危险性具有明显的区域差异，辽宁东南部为涝害易发区，播种—七叶，整个研究区涝害危险性较低，发生涝害的可能性较小；后3个发育阶段，涝害危险性高值区主要分布在辽宁东南部。播种—七叶，主要气象灾害风险呈东北—西南走向的带状分布，中低值区分布在东北地区中部，中高值区主要分布在东北地区西部和东部。七叶—抽雄，主要气象灾害风险基本由东北向西南方向递增，中低值区主要分布在黑龙江、吉林中部和东北部，中高值区主要分布在东北地区西部、吉林东南部、辽宁东部和南部，抽雄—乳熟、乳熟—成熟及生育期，主要气象灾害风险基本由东向西?

英文摘要：

Objective]Northeast China, one of China’s key grain production bases, witnessed unstable maize yield caused mainly by such meteorological disasters as chilling, drought and flood, and risk assessment of the main meteorological disasters threatening maize in Northeast China at different growth stages and the whole growth period will provide a scientific basis for regional agricultural production planning and meteorological disaster prevention and alleviation.[Method]Based upon the theory of natural disaster risk and the formation mechanism of agro-meteorological disaster risk, the established risk assessment index system and the risk assessment model of growth stages and the whole growth period aiming at the main meteorological disasters threatening maize in Northeast China were used to assess four elements （hazard of the natural disasters as chilling, drought and flood, exposure and vulnerability of the disaster-affected body and the disaster prevention and mitigation capacity of human beings） at four growth stages, namely sowing to seven-leaf, seven-leaf to tasseling, tasseling to milky ripening and milky ripening to maturation. After that, risk of the main meteorological disasters in each growth stage and of the whole growth period was assessed and zoning of the assessment result was identified in the system cluster analysis.[Result] Generally the hazard of chilling damage increases from west to east and are in zonal distribution at each growth stage. In early stages, areas with medium or high values of the hazard of chilling are in Changbai Mountain area and Southeast Heilongjiang; at later stages, the areas with medium or high values of the hazard of chilling are mostly in Changbai Mountain area and southeast and north of Heilongjiang research area. Generally the hazard of drought increases from east to west or from southeast to northwest and are in zonal distribution at each growth stage. While the hazard of flood present obvious regional differences at each growth stage with Southeast Liaoning being a