中文摘要：

2012年底我国实现了除外出农民工以外的城乡适龄人口基本养老保险的全覆盖，外出农民工养老保险已成为我国养老保险体系中最薄弱的环节，这对处于我国城镇化最前沿的农民工的福利改善乃至养老保险体系的城乡统筹，无疑是一个严峻挑战。2009年《农民工参加基本养老保险办法（摘要）》并没有正式执行，而后颁布的文件试图将农民工纳入城镇职工基本养老保险体系也没有取得预期效果。文章基于我国农民工养老保险的这种背景，利用Auerbach等（1991）提出的代际核算方法，从政府负担角度对我国农民工养老保险进行了系统模拟分析。结果表明，当前我国政府责任的不完善和财政支持的缺乏严重阻碍了农民工养老保险的发展，农民工应该以较低的缴费基数和缴费比例参加养老保险体系，如果企业和农民工按照城镇平均工资的60％缴费，企业缴纳10％，个人缴纳8％，政府的负担与支持农民工参加“新农保”相比并无增加。因此，当前建立农民工低缴费和低待遇的养老保险体系并辅以相关配套措施，才能推动农民工养老保险的发展。

英文摘要：

Urban-rural working-age population except migrant workers has been full covered by basic pension insurance by the end of 2012, and old-age pension insurance for migrant workers has become the weakest link in Chinese pension insurance system, which is undoubtedly a severe challenge to welfare improvement of migrant workers as the forefront of Chinese urbanization and even ccordinated development of urban and rural pension insurance systems in China. The governments did not formally carry out A Resolution for Basic Old-age Pension Insurance for Migrant Workers （Abstract） in 2009, and later documents issued to introduce migrant workers into urban basic pension system also have not achieved expected results Based on this background of old-age pension insurance for migrant workers, this paper employs generational accounting method raised by Auerhacb et al. in 1991 to make a systematic simulation analysis of old -age pension insurance for migrant workers from a perspective of fiscal burdens. It shows that the imperfection of government responsibilities and a lack of government support seriously hinder the development of old-age pension insurance for migrant workers and migrant workers should participate in pension insurance system at low payment base and percentages, namely if employers and migrant workers contribute 10 percent and 8 percent respectively at the payment base of 60 percent of urban average wages, government burdens do not increase compared to the support given to migrant workers participating in a new type of old-age pension insurance for rural residents. Therefore, old-age pension insurance for migrant workers with low payment and return levels accompanied by related measures is required to promote the development of oldage pension insurance for migrant workers at present.