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流域水安全预警评价的智能集成模型

期刊名称：水科学进展,2009（已录用、将发表）
时间：0
分类：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]
作者机构：[1]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策创新基地,上海 200433, [2]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥 230009, [3]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京 100081
相关基金：国家自然科学基金资助项目（50579009;70733005）;“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目（2006BAB14B02）;中国气象局成都高原气象开放实验室基金资助项目（LPM2008018）
相关项目：流域水安全复杂系统智能综合评价理论与应用

关键词：流域水安全, 预警评价, 智能集成模型, 巢湖流域, watershed water security, forewarning evaluation, intelligent integrated model, Chaohu watershed

中文摘要：

提出用基于加速遗传算法的模糊层次分析法筛选指标体系、确定各评价指标和各子系统的权重，用BP神经网络模型滚动预测评价指标，用集对分析方法构造评价指标样本值隶属于可变模糊集“水安全评价标准等级”的相对隶属度函数，建立了流域水安全预警评价的智能集成模型（IMI-FEM）。IMI-FEM对巢湖流域水安全系统未来5年的预警评价结果说明：水资源、水环境和水灾害防治安全子系统的安全状况将分别处于2.73～2.74级、3.30～3.32级和2.54～3.43级，社会经济安全子系统的安全状况将维持在3.33级，流域水安全系统的总体安全状况将处于2.98～3.20级，处于临界安全；主要限制指标为水资源开发利用率、人均水资源量、单位面积水资源量、万元农业产值用水量、单位面积化肥施用量、生态环境用水率、环保投资占GDP比例、单位面积蓄水工程总库容、水利工程投资占GDP比例、区域开发指数、人口密度和科技教育投入占GDP比例。

英文摘要：

In the paper, the accelerating genetic algorithm based on the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to filtrate the index system and determine the weights of both the indexes and the subsystems of the water security forewarning evaluation system, the back-propagation neural networks updating model is used to predict the values of the evaluation indexes, and the set pair analysis method is used to determine the relative membership degree function values of the variable fuzzy set of the assessed samples according the criterion grades of watershed water security, and the intelligent methods integrated forewarning evaluation model （IMI-FEM） is established for the watershed water security. The results of IMI-FEM applied to evaluating the water security system of Chaohu watershed in the following future five years show that the security states of its water resource security sub-system, water environment sub-system and water disaster sub-system are 2.73～2.74, 3.30～3.32, and 2.54～3.43 grade respectively, the security state of its society ＆ economy subsystem is 3.33 grade, the whole state of the watershed water security system is 2.98～3.20 grade in the critical security state, and the restrict indexes of Chaohu watershed water security system are as follows： the water resource utilization ratio, the water resource amount of per person, the water resource amount of unit area, the water resource demand amount of per ten-thousand Yuans of agriculture production value, the fertilizer wastage of unit area, the water resource demand rate of eco-environment, the environment protection investment of unit GDP, storage capacity of water conservancy projections of unit area, the water conservancy projection investment of unit GDP, the regional exploitation exponent, the population density, and the science ＆ technology investment of unit GDP.

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