中文摘要：

基于IDRISI软件，将元胞变化的马尔科夫趋势与城市发展用地约束因子的多准则评价相结合，制定元胞转换规则，构建复合因子元胞自动机预测模型并进行模拟．结果表明：对2010年福州市土地利用格局进行模拟，模拟结果与实际用地格局的检验Kappa 系数为0．8850，表征模型具有较高的可信度．模拟2015年福州市城市拓展用地空间变化，结果表明福州市城市将主要向东南方向拓展．耕地和未利用地面积趋于减少，建设用地和园地面积增大，城市发展对土地利用格局变化及行政区划等将产生深刻影响．

英文摘要：

Markov trend of cellular change and multl-crlteria evaluation of restraint factors of city land use were combined, and transfommfion rules were set to establish the multiple-factors cellttlar automata prediction modal and simulated by it. The land use pattern of Fuzhou City in 2010 was simulated to test the reliability of the model with IDRISI software. The Kappa cceflficient of simu- lation result was 0.8850, indicating a high confidence level. As the simulation result of city expansion space of Fuzhou showed, Fuzhou City would sprawl towards southeast in the future. The area of farmland and unused land would decrease with the incense- ment of construction land and garden land. The development of city had a deep impact on the change of land use pattern and admin- istrative district.