中文摘要：

基于群落演替的视角对产业技术演化阶段予以划分,通过改进回声模型建立产业技术演化的仿真模型,选用NetLogo软件进行智能体仿真。研究结果表明：产业技术演化由互不干扰阶段、相互干扰阶段、共摊阶段和协同演化阶段组成;演化初期,产业主体间多以竞争关系为主。随着演化的深入,主体间的关系逐渐复杂,当主体间呈现适度的竞争与稳定的合作关系后,产业技术演化进入稳定阶段;产业中技术的相互作用和演化关系由不同的〈CAE〉变化决定;产业技术的演化方向取决于环境选择、排斥与吸引的综合作用且具有路径依赖特征;剧烈的环境波动和＂断层＂瓶颈是影响产业技术稳定演化的关键因素;战略联盟间的合作是现代产业技术演化的标志。

英文摘要：

From the view of community succession,we divide the stages of technology evolution in industry.We then use the improved Echo Model to establish a simulation model of technology evolution in industry,and do the agent-based simulation with NetLogo.The results show that,technology evolution in industry can be divided into four stages,namely,noninterference stage,mutual-interference stage,sharing stage and co-evolutionary stage.In the early times of the evolution,the agents in the industry mainly show relationships of competition;as the evolution goes,relationships among agents tend to be increasingly complex.When there are appropriate competition and stable cooperation among agents,technology evolution in industry enters into a stable stage;the interaction and evolution relationships of technologies in industry are determined by the changes of CAE;the evolution direction of industry technology depends on the integral roles of environmental choices,exclusion and attraction,and has the characteristics of pathdependence;severe environmental fluctuations and the bottleneck of ＂fault＂are the key elements that influence the stability of technology evolution in industry;the cooperation in strategic alliance is the indicator of modern technology evolution in industry.