中文摘要：

本文通过趋势外推法、VAR方法、ARIMA模型对信贷余额／GDP进行了估计，并预测信贷余额／GDP及其与长期趋势的偏离度等相关经济指标，基于预测结果外推12个月后的逆周期资本数额。结果表明，组合预测法不仅对商业银行逆周期资本的长期设置估计精度较高，且可以对2011年出现的逆周期资本由增加到释放的拐点给出前瞻性判断。该方法可为银行信贷投放和管理、监管机构逆周期资本操作提供借鉴。信贷余额／GDP在很大程度上能够反映中国银行业系统性风险的大小，可以作为中国逆周期资本计提的主要参考指标。

英文摘要：

Based on the trend extrapolation, VAR method and ARIMA model, this paper estimates the credit/GDP, and fore casts the credit/GDP, the deviation degree between credit/GDP and its longterm trend, and other related economic indicators, then extrapolate from the forecast results to the amount of countercyclical capital 12 months later. It is found that the combina tionforecast method can not only accurately estimate the longterm settings of countercyclical capitals, but also judge in ad vance the turning point of countercyclical capitals from increase to release in 2011. The method may be a reference for banks to grant and manage credits, and for regulator＇s manipulation of countercyclical capitals. The credit/GDP can well reflect the level of systemic risks in the Chinese banking sector, and it can serve as a main reference indicator for China＇s countercyclical capital provision.