中文摘要：

本文在构建我国主权或有权益资产负债表的基础之上。运用或有权益分析方法测算了1991年至2010年以来我国政府主权资产的风险价值与波动率。在此基础上求出我国过去20年主权风险的违约距离、违约概率与信用溢价等信用指标。通过或有权益分析方法求得的我国1991年至2010年主权信用等级与标准普尔公布的我国主权信用评级结果在总体上基本持平。实证结果表明．或有权益方法较传统主权信用评级方法具有直观性、动态性、整体性等特点。

英文摘要：

Building on the model of Contingent Claim Approach, the paper established the stylized Sovereign Balance Sheet first, and then used the Contingent Claim Approach to evaluate China＇ s sovereign asset and volatility from 1991 to 2010. Following that, the result from the model was used to calculate China＇ s Distance to distress, Risk neutral default probability and Credit default spread. After comparing the sovereign credit rating provided by Contingent Claim Approach and Standard ＆ Poor, we found they were consistent at large. Therefore, we assessed the advantage of Contingent Claim Approach in immediacy, integrity and dynamism.