中文摘要：

旅游流时间特征研究是旅游地规划、市场营销和景区容量管理的基础。本文以港澳和台湾入境旅游流为研究对象,应用快速样本聚类法、基尼系数、季节变动指数和年际变动指数对1997年-2010年间港澳和台湾入境旅游流的季节性变化和年际变化进行了定量分析和研究,得出以下结论：①港澳和台湾入境旅游流的季节性均不强,其中台湾入境旅游流季节性相对较强。港澳和台湾入境旅游流季节分布模式均呈＂四峰＂型,但是港澳入境旅游流季节分布曲线呈现明显的＂双W＂型,台湾入境旅游流季节分布曲线则呈现明显的＂双M＂型;②港澳和台湾入境旅游市场仍是我国入境旅游市场的主体,但是其占中国入境旅游市场的份额呈下降趋势;③中国入境旅游业的发展受国际旅游环境和国内旅游环境的双重影响,其中外国人入境旅游市场受国际危机事件的影响更显著,港澳和台湾入境旅游市场受中国大陆危机事件的影响更显著;④港澳台入境旅游流季节性变化受自然因素影响不大,主要受制度因素影响。制度因素中的公共假期因素是影响港澳和台湾入境旅游流年内季节变化的主要因素。

英文摘要：

Time characteristics of tourist flows are the foundation for travel planning,marketing, and scenic spot capacity management.Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan inbound tourism markets take up about 80%of Mainland China’s inbound tourism market.It is therefore of great importance to develop a targeted strategy for tourism development and a marketing strategy by comparing and contrasting the time characteristics of inbound tourist flows among them.Seasonal variations and inter-annual variations in Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan’s inbound tourist flows were contrasted by means of k-means cluster analysis,the Gini index,Seasonality index,and yearly intensity index during the period 1997-2010.Findings are given as follows.1）The seasonality of Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan’s inbound tourist flows are not notable.The seasonality of Taiwan’s inbound tourist flow is more striking than that of Hong Kong and Macao. The seasonal pattern of Hong Kong and Macao exhibits four peaks.The seasonal distribution curve of Hong Kong and Macao shows an obvious＂double-W＂shape,but exhibits a＂double M＂for Taiwan;2）The Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan inbound tourism market constitutes a principal part of Mainland China’s inbound tourism market,even though their market shares were generally declining in those years.The chain growth speed of Taiwan’s inbound tourism was lower than that of Hong Kong and Macao.At the same time,either market share or chain growth of the foreigners market grew significantly after 2004;3）Significant events or crises occurring in any fields would greatly influence Mainland China’s inbound tourist flow.Impact of Mainland China’s crises on the Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan inbound tourism market was pronounced.The foreigner market of Mainland China tends to be more significantly affected by international crises.Political, economic,and cultural areas of significant incidents or emergencies will lead to a sharp shock on Hong Kong,Macao,and Taiwan’s inbound tourist flow.Political situations of the Taiwan Strait