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中文摘要：
准确预测径流量对水资源科学管理具有重要意义.针对年径流量与其影响因子关系复杂的特点,利用自组织数据挖掘理论分析并描述两者之间的联系,同时,以集对分析为基础从同、异、反3个方面来刻画模型计算值与实际值之间的接近程度并建立相应的筛选外准则,以进行中间模型的评价及选择,从而构建了基于集对分析的年径流自组织预测模型（SPA-GMDH）.实例结果表明：SPA-GMDH模型能够自主地选择对年径流量作用显著的输入形成最终模型,其拟合及预测效果良好.
英文摘要：
Exact forecast for annual runoff has great significance to scientific management for water resources.In this study,the group method of data handling（GMDH） is applied to find out the relationship between annual runoff and its impact factors.In the meantime,connection degree of set pair analysis method from aspects of identity,contradistinction and discrepancy is used to indicate the prediction precision of alternative models which are picked out with set pair analysis-based selection criteria so as to establish a forecast model called set pair analysis-based GMDH（SPA-GMDH）.The application results show that SPA-GMDH can pick out the factors greatly affecting annual runoff to construct the forecast model,and that it does good performance in fitting and prediction.
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