中文摘要：

基于非竞争性假设,利用投入产出模型和结构分解分析法,研究了我国造纸产业1995—2009年出口贸易隐含碳的演变特征及影响因素。结果表明,1995—2009年我国造纸产业出口贸易隐含碳呈先降低后升高再降低的变化规律,且约占我国造纸产业碳排放总额的20%;造纸产业对化学制品业及电力、天然气和水供应业等高碳排行业的关联度逐渐增加,生产过程中对间接隐含的其他行业所产生的CO_2比例较高;生产技术改进及能源消耗强度的降解对抵消隐含碳增长的作用显著。

英文摘要：

Based on the non-competitive hypothesis, this paper utilized the input-output model and structural decomposition analysis to study the change characteristic of the export trade embodied carbon of China＇s paper industry and its influence factors from 1995 to 2009. The results indicated that the export trade embodied carbon which accounted for about 20% of the total amount of Chinese paper industry＇s carbon emission showed the characteristics of declining at first then rising, and declining again from 1995 to 2009. The relevance between papermaking industry and high carbon emission industries such as chemical products, electric power, natural gas and water supply industries was increased gradually. There was high proportion of embodied carbon produced from other industries in paper products manufacture process. On the other hand the production technology modification could remarkablly offset part of the embodied carbon.