中文摘要：

利用1991～2000年逐日气象资料以及20世纪80年代末和90年代末土地利用数据，估算了东北地区气候波动和LUCC过程对农田生产潜力的影响。结果显示：90年代东北地区由于作物生长季内气候变暖和降水减少，生产潜力普遍降低6．45％，其中降水量变化的区域差异是导致生产潜力变化区域分异的主要原因。在LUCC过程的影响下，东北地区生产潜力总量净增加2402．79×10^4t。从气候波动和LUCC过程对生产潜力的影响程度看，气候波动要低于LUCC过程的作用，LUCC过程所导致的生产潜力的增长趋势抵消了气候波动所带来的降低趋势，10年间东北地区农田生产潜力总量净增加992．23×10^4t。

英文摘要：

This paper estimated the impact of recent climate fluctuation and LUCC process on potential productivity in Northeast China. The results show that from 1991 to 2000 the potential productivity generally decreased 6.45% because of climate warming and precipitation decreasing. The land-use change made potential productivity take great changes in the region that land-use change took place. The changes were mostly driven by LUCC conversion process, in the 1990s the total potential productivity increased 24.03 × 10^6 t. Comparing the influence of climate fluctuation and LUCC process, the impact of climate fluctuation was less than that of LUCC process, the increased trend of potential productivity that leaded by LUCC process counteracted the decreased trend leaded by climate fluctuation. Under the integrated influence of climate fluctuation and LUCC process, total potential productivity increased by 9.92 × 10^6 t in the 1990s.