通过对我国1956—2012年冬季气温及太阳黑子相对数资料,采用一元线性回归,Mann-Kendall检验方法,Morlet小波分析技术,分析了我国冬季气温与太阳黑子相对数变化关系。结果表明:近57 a,我国冬季气温上升趋势明显;除青藏高原区外,7个区域冬季气温均发生了升温突变,突变时间落在了太阳黑子峰谷年的附近;太阳黑子数在9 a时间尺度上与各个区域的冬季气温有很强的相关性。虽然各区域在不同时间段内冬季气温变化与太阳黑子变化存在差异,但从季风强弱变化的角度来看,在我国东部季风区存在一定的规律性。即由于太阳辐射量的变化,导致了海陆温差的增大或减小,进而影响东亚冬季风的强弱,导致不同区域冬季气温的差异,太阳活动与我国不同区域冬季气温变化存在着密切的关系。
The simple linear regression,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis were used to study the relationship between the number of sunspots and the winter temperature based on the data of winter temperature in China and the number of sunspots during the period from 1956 to 2012. The results showed that the winter temperature increased obviously in China in recent 57 years,especially an obvious temperature increase occurred in 1986. The cold winter and warm winter occurred around the peak value year of macula activity. A sharp temperature increase occurred around the peak value year of macula activity in 7 regions except in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,and the jump time of winter temperature change in north China was earlier than that in south China. There were some obvious periods of winter temperature change in different regions of China. There was a high correlation between the number of sunspots and the winter temperature in different regions of China at 9-year time scale. There was a significant negative correlation between the winter temperature and the number of sunspots at 9-year time scale in north and northeast China,a significant positive one in the west of northwest,southwest and south China,and a positive one in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau,and there was no significant correlation between the number of sunspots and the winter temperature in the east of northwest China,and the middle and lower reaches of the Changjiang River. There were the obvious differences between the winter temperature and the number of sunspots at different time scales in China,but there was regularity from the perspective of monsoon intensity change in the monsoon regions of China.Temperature difference between the land and sea caused by solar radiation affected the intensity of the East Asia winter monsoon in China,thus the winter temperature was quite different from different regions of China. It was found that the activity of sunspots was closely related to the winter temperature in different regions of China.