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中文摘要：
利用s曲线模型分析了美国主要领域的技术发展轨迹及生命周期。研究结果表明：1963—2008年美国各领域技术发展轨迹s曲线拟合效果良好，且各技术领域第二阶段专利产出较多，发展更加持久；现今美国多数技术领域处于成熟期，仅有通信设备一个技术领域处于成长期，电子信息及相关技术领域仍具有较大的发展潜力，是美国今后国家创新能力发展的主导技术领域；制药和药品领域仍然处于新技术变革的酝酿期，可能迎来一个全新的发展周期。
英文摘要：
Based on the S - curve model, we study the development paths and life - cycle characteristics of major U. S. technology fields. The results indicate that from 1963 to 2008 the development paths of major technology fields fit the S -curve well, and at the second phase of the S - curve, all technology fields have more patents and develop longer. The majority of U. S. technology fields are in their mature period. Only the communications equipment field is in the growth period. Moreover, the electronic information and its related industries still have much development potential and they may become the leading technology fields for the further development of the U.S. national innovation capability. The pharmaceutical and medicines field is still waiting for another technological revolution and a new development life - cycle.
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