中文摘要：

本文利用DLS模型，在中国的9个土地利用分区上分析了栅格水平上土地利用变化的机理，设定了土地利用时空格局变化的不同情景，模拟了基准情景和发展生物能源政策情景下各土地利用分区2010年～2025年土地利用时空格局变化。从发展生物能源情景的模拟结果，可以看出，在各种影响因素的综合作用下，各种土地类型之间相互竞争及其在空间分配上的演替规律。结果表明：发展生物能源情景下内蒙古及其沿线区、黄淮海区和黄土高原区的土地利用变化都有较大的变化，而东北区变化不明显，基本处于平稳状态。从整体来看，林地在各区都有不同程度的增加。模拟结果可为决策者制定土地利用规划提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

In this paper, scenarios on land use changes in China have been designed for the next fifteen years, from 2010 to 2025, by considering the macro background of population growth, economic development, social development and technological changes. The software tool, Dynamics of Land System （DLS）, is used to simulate and analyze the land uses influenced by the geophysical factors, social and economic factors and explore the driving mechanism of the spatial and temporal patterns of land uses. The DLS model has unique advantage on the simulation of land uses at large scale and can be used to explore the evolution rule of the spatial and temporal patterns of land uses influenced by geophysical, social and economic factors at regional extent. Based on scenario analyses of land uses for the next two decades, the spatial and temporal patterns of land uses are simulated and identified at the 10 km grid pixel level for the entire China. The simulation results indicate that the spatial and temporal patterns of land uses in China for the next fifteen years is under a dynamic changing process influenced by a couple of factors. It is estimated that much more cultivated land would be converted to urban residential land and industrial land in the next two decades. Forestry area is expected to expand at a moderate speed. The simulation results also show that the cultivated land decreases while both the built-up area and forestry area will increase dramatically in China for the next fifteen years. The northeastern and northwestern of China would be the sensitive zones of land use changes for the next two decades. Policy scenarios have relatively stronger impact on land use changes than baseline scenario, as indicated by the area of land use changes. The simulation results under various scenarios are of great importance to simulate the dynamic changes of land uses, which can provide valuable information for decision making on land management and land use planning.