中文摘要：

在短期周期性因素和长期趋势性因素的共同影响下，本轮经济周期出现超预期收缩。但月度景气指数已经在6月左右触底企稳，始于2009年2月的此轮经济周期已经结束，经济景气将在“偏冷”区间内稳中趋升。季度GDP增速的下降局面也有望在2012年三季度停止。预测2012年GDP增长7．7％，物价的下降阶段可能持续到2012年底，预计全年CPI上涨率为2．6％左右，达到预期的调控目标。

英文摘要：

Influenced by the short-time cycle factors and long-time trend factors, the latest economic slowdown is beyond expectations. However, the monthly coincident CI was bottom off around this June and the economic cycle which started from February 2009 has come to an end. The economic climate is promising to increase slightly during the ＂cold＂ economic climate. The downturn of quarterly GDP growth rate is expected to come to an end in the third quarter of 2012. The growth rate of China＇s GDP in 2012 is expected to be around 7.7%. CPI＇s downturn is supposed to continue until the end of 2012, with an annual inflation rate to be at about 2.6%, which is expected to meet the target of macroeconomic regulation.