中文摘要：

为应对严峻复杂的安全形势,我国通过构建安全防范系统实现对公共安全的防护.安全防范系统是由人和安防设备组成的复杂系统,安全防范系统风险评估是判断其防护效能好坏的重要度量标准.本文将部署在一个区域的安全防范系统抽象看成由多个安防节点组成的网络,根据熵理论和Neyman-Pearson准则,提出一种利用防护最薄弱路径定量度量安全防范系统风险的模型,并给出安全防范网络防护最弱路径的表达式,以及基于Dijkstra最短路径算法求解防护最薄弱路径的方法.最后本文研究模型参数和安全防范系统部署的数量与安全防范网络的风险之间的关系,给出相应的仿真结果,并进行实际应用场景的风险评估实验.实验结果表明,本文提出的模型可以定量评估多节点的安全防范系统的风险,提高评估结果的科学性.

英文摘要：

There is a growing interest in the construction of security systems to protect social public safety. For asecurity system, risk assessment is an important metric to judge its protection effectiveness. In this paper, a securitysystem deployed in an area is regarded abstractly as a diagram of security network. Firstly, a method for risk assessmentbased on entropy theory and Neyman-Pearson criterion is proposed. Secondly, the most vulnerable path formulation of thesecurity network is described and a solution by utilizing the Dijkstras shortest path algorithm is provided. The protectionprobability on the most vulnerable path is considered as the risk measure of the security network. Furthermore, the effectsof some parameters on the risk and the breach protection probability are simulated, and a risk evaluation experimentis carried out with a real scenario. The results show that the model proposed in this paper can not only quantitativelyevaluate the risk of the security network but also get a more scientific and reasonable evaluation result.