中文摘要：

本文将降雨量、温度等气候因素引入超越对数生产函数,构建了一个包含气候因素和社会经济因素的综合模型,利用2009-2013年湖北省20个油菜生产县238个油菜种植农户的微观面板数据,研究近5年温度和降雨量对油菜产量的影响。结果表明,油菜生长期温度升高和降雨量减少对年产量均有正面影响。日平均温度每提高1℃,种植户年均产量增加5.03%～6.55%;日平均降雨量每增加1mm,种植户年均产量减少0.27%～1.75%。2009-2013年温度和降雨量的波动导致油菜年产量减产3.376%。除气候因素之外,各主要投入要素对油菜年产量也有正面影响,影响因素的大小依次为土地、劳动力、其它生产费用、化肥,这说明土地和劳动力严重制约油菜种植面积和产量的进一步增长。因此,相关部门应完善农业基础设施和加强气象信息服务,尽量减少气候因素波动给农作物带来的不利影响。

英文摘要：

Based on micro panel data from 238 rapeseed producing farmers in 20 main rapeseed producing counties of Hubei province,the paper evaluates the impact of climate factors in recent 5years on rapeseed production by adopting translog production function which includes climate factors. The empirical results show that rising temperature and decreasing precipitation have positive impact on rapeseed production. In detail,rapeseed annual production per household increases 5.03% to 6.55% as monthly average temperature increases 1℃ and decreases 0.27% to1.75% as daily average precipitation increases 1mm.Climate factors during growth period has negative impact on annual rapeseed production and the contribution rate is-3.376%. Other four inputs which are land,labor,other production expenses and fertilizer input have positive impacts on annual rapeseed production. It reflects the truth that land and labor input have become the main constraint factors to rapeseed production. Agricultural infrastructure and agro-meteorological service should be improved in order to minimize losses caused by climate factors.