中文摘要：

利用系统动力学的原理和方法,构建了水资源约束下的土地利用变化情景模型,系统模拟了张北县2010—2025年不同情景模式下的土地利用结构,并对模拟结果的社会、经济、生态效应进行对比分析。水资源约束条件下人口和GDP增长减缓,且水资源约束越强,人口及经济发展速度越缓慢。同时水资源约束条件在一定程度上影响着土地利用结构变化：1）水资源约束越强,耕地面积减少越快,未来耕地面积越小,林地和建设用地面积增加越慢,未来林地和建设用地面积越小。2）对比无水资源约束和有水资源约束条件下的土地利用结构：水资源约束条件下的耕地、林地和建设用地面积均较小,耕地年减少速度较大,林地和建设用地年增加速度均较小。综合考虑土地利用的社会效应、经济效应及生态效应,情景B即水资源中度约束下的土地利用结构为最佳土地利用模式。

英文摘要：

Using the principle and method of system dynamics,we established the land use change scenario model under the restriction of water resources,simulated the land use structures from 2010 to 2025under different scenarios of water resources restraint in Zhangbei County,and compared the effectiveness of the simulation result.The result showed that the population and GDP increased slowly under the restriction of water resource.The stronger water resource constraint induced in a slower population and economic development speed.Meanwhile,water resources constraint also influenced the land use structure.With intensifying the water resource constraint,the arable land decreased quickly while forest land and construction land increased slowly.The areas of arable,forest and construction land under water resource constraint were all smaller than those under no water resource constraint.Annual decrease rate of arable land at water resource constraint was larger than that at no water resource constraint.However,the increase rates of forest land and construction land were smaller at water resource constraint than those at no water resource constraint.Considering the social,economic and ecological effectivenesses of land use,the land use structure under the scenario of moderate water resources constraint was the proper land use pattern.