本文根据集聚经济与增长极理论构建产业集聚和增长极溢出作用模型,分别使用工具变量固定效应联立方程和各年截面方程检测2000-2007年间河南省126个市(县)产业集聚与自身经济增长的因果关系和中原城市群在全省经济发展中的增长极作用。研究结果显示:非农产业集聚与经济增长互为因果、互相强化,但是非农业就业的空间密度相对过高,已产生明显的拥挤效应和非经济性;特别值得关注的是,中原城市群地级中心城市对各级市县的经济增长具有显著抑制作用,这种作用在最近几年相当稳定。研究结果为统筹制定配套区域政策提供了依据。
Built on the theories of agglomeration economies and growth poles,this study constructs a simultaneous equation model and uses instrumental variable fixed effects model and cross-sectional equation model to examine the relationship between industrial agglomeration and economic growth of 126 cities and counties in Henan province,and to test growth pole spillovers of Central Plain City Group.The results of statistical analysis show that industrial agglomeration and economic growth were mutually causally related and reinforced,but spatial density of non-agricultural employment caused congestion effects and diseconomies.It is especially worth noting that growth of the central cities in Central Plain City-Group significantly impeded growths of all cities and counties and this adverse effect was persistent from 2000 through 2007.The research finding suggests the need for coordinated regional policy.