中文摘要：

国际减排的方案制定是全球应对气候变化的关键问题，也是当前各国的争端所在。基于MRICES（LRICES）模型，对配额原则下的“丹麦草案”、人均排放权均等方案以及排放水平控制原则下的UNDP方案、以2005年为基年的排放控制厅案展开了政策模拟，对各方案的公平性、有效件展开了定量分析，最后就《哥本哈根协议》下各国的减排方案做了相关模拟。研究发现：“丹麦草案”是极不公平的配额方案；以2005年为历史排放起点年的人均累积排放权均等方案对我国不利；UNDP方案使发展中国家支付了较多经济成本，存在不公平性；以2005年作为全球排放控制原则的基准年是可行的，但前提是发达国家均比2005年水平减排80％。当前形成的《哥本哈根协议》将使2100年全球升温2．8℃。因此，各国在2020年后必须实施更大的减排强度以达到2100年全球升温在2℃以内的目标。

英文摘要：

Making a deal on global mitigation scheme has become the pivotal issue in handling with climate change, but it＇s still far from being settled up. With policy modeling based on the LRICES MRICES （LRICES） model, this paper assesses the climatic effectiveness and economic efficiency of several global mitigation schemes in two kinds. One is the scheme based on emission permits allocation, such as ＂Danish Text＂ and Egalitarianism Scheme, while the other is the target emission reduction scheme, such as UNDP Scheme. Meanwhile, the feasibility of taking 2005 as the reference year for both kinds of mitigation schemes is also analyzed. Results show that the ＂Danish Text＂ is rather unfair for developing countries, in which the emission permits for developing countries are taken by developed countries resulting EU even can emit more than its current level. When take 2005 as the reference year for global emission permits allocation, though the permits gap between developed and developing countries could be narrowed under this scheme, China will loses emission permits relative to other schemes taking 1860, 1900, 1980, 1990 and 2013 as the reference year. The UNDP scheme makes developing countries afford more than developed countries relatively indicating the unfairness of it. Generally speaking, the fault of the UNDP scheme lays in the uniform adoption of 1990 as the reference year for emission cut in both developing and developed countries, because the emission levels in developing countries are lower than developed countries substantially in 1990 which make developing countries have to cut more than they can undertake. While taking 2005 as the reference year for target emission reduction scheme, controlling temperature increase below 2 degree celsius is possible if developed countries can take the obligation of cutting 80% emission from 2005 level. Finally, as the achievement of Copenhagen Climate Conference, the national mitigation actions listed in Copenhagen Accord are assessed. It is found that when impleme