川东北地区一直以来都是地质灾害高发地区,地质环境条件脆弱,极端降雨事件频发,是区域地质灾害预警高度关注地区。以2012年6月下旬到7月上旬持续强降雨诱发崩滑流灾害过程为例,通过统计方法,从空间和时间角度,分析地质灾害的空间分布、时间分布与降雨的相关关系,得到该区域降雨诱发地质灾害的规律特点及临界降雨判据。(1)川东北地区的降雨模式常见为数日持续降雨,且降雨中出现数次(2~3日)的极值雨量,在这种降雨模式下,考虑到前期降雨的累积效应,需要着重关注第二次的极值降雨,往往会诱发更大的群发灾害过程,并具有明显的滞后效应,此特点在巴中、达州、广元等地表现得尤为明显,而南充市的即时发灾特点更为明显。(2)川东北地区各市临界雨量不同,在少量前期雨量累计情况下,广安最低,约为25mm;其次是广元,约为50mm;最后是巴中、达州和南充,约为90mm。相关结论可为该地区的区域地质灾害预警研究和实践提供技术支撑。
Northeast of Sichuan Province is geo-hazard prone area, weak geo-environment conditions, frequency of extreme rainfall event, is highly concerned about the regional geo-hazard warning areas. In this paper, in late June 2012 to early July continuous heavy rainfall-induced landslides process, using statistical methods, to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution correlation between geo-hazards and heavy rainfall, and obtain its inducing features and critical criterion. (1) Northeast of Sichuan province, rainfall patterns are continuous rainfall amounting to several days and about 2-3 days extreme rainfall. In this mode, taking into cumulative effect of antecedent rainfall, we need to focus on second extreme rainfall, often induce greater mass disasters. That is a significant lag effect, which is obvious in Bazhong, Dazhou, Guangyuan and etc, while the instant effect in N anchong city. (2) Critical rainfall are different, the minimum day rainfall in Guang' an, about 25mm; followed Guangyuan, about 50mm; finally, Bazhong, Dazhou and Nanchong, about 90mm. Relevant conclusions can be as reference of geo-hazard warning research and practice.