中文摘要：

针对应急救灾供应链与商业供应链在交付时间及订货上的显著差异,构建了以社会成本最小化为目标函数的多阶段物资订购-分派模型。推导证明了：在应急救灾供应链环境下,当交付时间为随机变量时,牛鞭效应的存在性;在交付时间方差增大时,订单数量方差也会相应增大,从而增强牛鞭效应。研究表明,由于应急救灾供应链相较传统商业供应链其交付时间上具有更大的不确定性,会导致应急救灾供应链产生更大程度的信息失真,即更为严重的牛鞭效应。应急救灾行动中,如果能降低交付时间的不确定性,就可以削弱牛鞭效应对应急救灾行动的影响,并提高应急救灾行动的整体绩效。

英文摘要：

There are significant differences in lead time,and ordering between the emergency relief supply chain and the commercial supply chain.To meet these differences,we propose a multi-period order-distribution model which aims to minimize the social cost of a relief effort.Our study proves the existence of bullwhip effect when the lead time is a random variable and the variance of the order increases as the variance of the lead time increases.It implies that an emergency relief supply chain suffers a greater degree of information distortion and more serious bullwhip effect due to the uncertainty of the lead time,comparing to a traditional commercial supply chain.If the uncertainty of the lead time can be reduced,bullwhip effect can be mitigated and the overall performance of an emergency relief effort can be improved as well.