中文摘要：

人类社会的发展使得水资源与水环境问题日益突出,传统水资源单一数量承载力已不能满足水资源规划与管理的需求。本文从水质水量耦合角度构建了量质平衡方程和针对水功能区划水质目标的地表水资源可利用量计算方法,在此基础上提出了以人口数量与GDP规模为表征指标的水资源承载力计算模型。该模型利用人口空间展布的方法将社会经济指标拆分到水资源分区,用承载水平下的生活用水量与Ⅰ—Ⅲ类水资源可利用量平衡关系对结果进行试算检验,考虑了水质水量对水资源承载力的双重约束,也反映了地表水资源可利用量的动态变化特性。模型在沂河流域进行了应用,选用CODcr为污染物控制指标,分析计算了沂河流域不同水平年的水资源承载力,验证了模型计算结果的合理性与科学性。计算结果可以评估和预测流域未来时期的水资源承载程度,为流域/区域经济社会的可持续发展提供依据。

英文摘要：

Development of human society makes water resources and environment become increasingly promi-nent,and the conventional water resources carrying capacity cannot meet the needs of water resources plan-ning and management. By constructing balance equation of the quantity-quality and available surface waterresources calculation method of water function regionalization for water quality objectives,this paper putsforward water resources carrying capacity model,which based on population size and GDP index. This mod-el uses a method of population spatial distribution so that socio-economic indicators can be divided into wa-ter resources partitions,and utilizes the balance of domestic water under carrying level and class Ⅰ- Ⅲamount of water resources to text the results. It considers the dual constraints of water quality and quantityon water resources carrying capacity,and also reflects the dynamic nature of available surface water resourc-es. Case in Yi River basin,selecting CODcras pollution control indicators,this paper analyses and calcu-lates its water resources carrying capacity in different years,which validates the rationality and science ofthe model. The results of the calculation can assess and forecast its carrying level in the future,as well asproviding for the basis of the sustainable development of basin/region.