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中文摘要：
本文基于1997-2008年间我国GDP增长率和CPI的季度数据，通过HP滤波方法分解得出潜在GDP和产出缺口，并在菲利普斯曲线和产出缺口理论框架下运用协整方法对产出缺口、潜在GDP和CPI水平进行分析，得出我国价格总水平的合理目标区间为（-0.62％～3.61％），认为随着我国经济的发展，该区间将会缩小，尤其是上限会降低。
英文摘要：
Using the quarterly data of GDP growth rate and CPI in China from 1997 to 2008, potential GDP and output gap are estimated by H - P filter. Then the reasonable range of overall price level is con- structed by analyzing potential GDP, output gap and CPI through the cointegration method under the framework of Phillips curve theory, leading to the result that the reasonable range of overall price level is （ -0.62%～3.61% ）, which will shrink with the development of the economy, especially the upper bound of the interval will decline.
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