中文摘要：

为了更精确地估计交通网络路段旅行时间可靠度，借助于Greenshilds速度密度模型和交通流三要素关系模型，假设路段故障率与交通流波动成正比关系而与时间无关，考虑影响路段可靠度3个方面因素：交通流波动、道路条件、出行者心理期望，通过理论推导，得到一个新的路段旅行时间可靠度估计模型。用maflab软件对模型进行模拟，分别得到可靠度与饱和度、道路故障率、出行者心理期望因子之间关系曲线。试验结果与真实情况较为吻合，模型较好地反映了3个因素对路段可靠度的影响。以路段可靠度为基础，计算OD对可靠度，并对其进行敏感性分析，提出路段单元可靠度对于OD对可靠度的敏感性可以归结为独立的两部分：本路径内其他路段影响和平行路径影响。在银川中心城区网络上对可靠度模型进行验证，讨论了其在交通运营管理和路网瓶颈识别中的应用。

英文摘要：

To more precisely measure the reliability of link travel time, a new model is presented based on the assumption that the malfunction intensity of link is directly proportional to the fluctuation of traffic flow but independent of time. The model integrates three main influence factors of link travel time reliability： flow saturation, travelers＇expectation and reliability of road condition. The model is theoretically derived from Greenshilds densityspeed model and volume-speed-density model, and coded by using matlab. The relationships between link reliability and its three influencing factors are illustrated for different values of parameters. The simulation results are in good agreement with reality. Then reliability of OD （original and destination） pairs is computed by treating the OD subnetwork as a system composed of links connecting in series and then in parallel. Through sensitivity analysis of OD reliability, it is found that the influence of link reliability to OD pair reliability could be categorized into two independent aspects： influence of other links within the same route and influence of other parallel routes. The model is tested for the road network of the central district in Yinchuan city, capital of Ningxia province in China, and the results indicate that the proposed model can reasonably estimate the reliability of link.