中文摘要：

耕地质量是国家经济和社会可持续发展的关键因素,气候变化引起的耕地质量变化已成为全球变化研究的热点问题之一。该文以我国北方典型半干旱气候敏感区武川县为例,利用1989—2009年历史气候数据和土地利用资料,研究了气候变化对生产潜力、标准耕作制度和产量的影响,在此基础上进一步研究了武川县耕地自然质量等指数和土地利用等指数的变化情况。结果表明：武川县气候呈显著干暖化趋势,在其影响下,武川县耕地自然质量等指数呈下降趋势,水分是制约自然质量等指数的关键因素;旱地土地利用等指数呈下降趋势,水浇地土地利用等指数则呈上升趋势。该研究能够为气候变化背景下制定土地利用制度,保护和提高耕地质量提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

Cultivated land quality is a key factor of national economic and social sustainable development. The change of cultivated land quality with climate change has become one of the hot research areas in global change in recent years. Based on the meteorological data, soil information and field experimental data were used, utilizing the Wageninngen method recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization （FAO） to calculate the potential productivity of potato and spring wheat from 1989 to 2009 in Wuchuan County, Inner Mongolia, a typical semi-arid climate-sensitive area in North China. We examined the influence of climate change on production potential, the standard cropping system, and the yield. Further, by the method of regulations of Farmland classification, we used the data of potential productivity and land use to analyze the changes of natural quality grades and utilization grades under climate change. The results showed that： （1） The annual temperature of Wuchuan County increased at an average rate of 0.57℃/10a during 1967-2009. The precipitation varied greatly among the years, and the annual precipitation declined slightly over time. The soil relative humidity in soil layers 0-10 cm and 10-20 cm depth in crop growing season （April-September） in the period 1989-2009 had a decreasing trend with an average rate of 1.8%/a and 1.5%/a, respectively. Drought index increased noticeably. In conclusion, Wuchuan County was getting warmer and dryer under climate change. （2） Most of the cultivated lands were the dry lands in Wuchuan county （accounting for more than 90%）, but the irrigated lands increased in recent years. The main crop in Wuchuan county was potatoes in 2009 instead of spring wheat in 1989. The planting area of potatoes increased from 8.4% to 39.8%, while spring wheat planting area decreasing from 52.1% to 17.1% in the period 1989-2009. （3） The production potential of the potatoes and spring wheat showed a declining trend under the dry warming climate in Wuchuan county. The pr