“提高户籍人口城镇化率”被列为全面建成小康社会新的目标要求,户籍人口城镇化研究对中国新型城镇化发展和理解中国城镇化发展规律具有重要参考。通过厘清中国户籍人口城镇化率的“本地”“城镇”“户籍”等指标的统计口径,提出直接核算法、间接核算法两种中国户籍人口城镇化率测算方法。根据第六次人口普查数据,核算出中国县市尺度的户籍人口城镇化率,并与县市尺度的常住人口城镇化率与半城镇化率对比分析,得出主要结论:①中国户籍人口城镇化率显著滞后于常住人口城镇化率。2010年,中国常住人口城镇化率达50.27%,但户籍人口城镇化率仅有39.34%。常住人口城镇化率的较高的单元往往与户籍人口城镇化率差距较大,形成较高的半城镇化率,外来流人人口对常住人口城镇化具有显著的拉动作用。②中国户籍人口城镇化率的分布格局与非农就业机会呈现显著的正相关性,沿海、沿江、北部沿边等地区的户籍人口城镇化率显著高于内陆地区。流人人口主要在沿海城市群地区以及中西部省会或首府等大城市高度集聚,半城镇化率呈现显著的极化格局,使得户籍人口城镇化率的高值区相对常住人口城镇化率高值区显著收缩。③中国三分之二的县市的户籍人口城镇化率、常住人口城镇化率、半城镇化率均低于全国平均水平。沿海城市群地区及省会或首府等发达城市的半城镇化水平较高,应积极促进流动人口市民化提升户籍人口城镇化水平,而中西部的城镇化水平普遍偏低,应积极促进就地城镇化提升户籍人口城镇化水平。
Improving the urbanization rate of registered population is regarded as a new target of building a moderately prosperous society in China. The gap between urbanization rates of residential population and registered population is caused by the large floating population. The research on urbanization rate of registered population is helpful for understanding the new urbanization process in China. This paper clarified the statistic definitions of "local", "nonlocal" and "urban" for urbanization rate of registered population. Then two calculation methods, which were direct method and indirect method, were put forward to measure urbanization rate of registered population. Based on the 6th census data in China, the urbanization rate of registered population at county scale in 2010 was calculated. Besides, the comparison was conducted between urbanization rates of registered population, residential population and floating population. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) Urbanization rate of registered population was obviously lower than that of residential population. In 2010, the urbanization rate of residential population reached 50.27%, while that of registered population was only 39.34%. The cities and counties with a large immigrant floating population usually have a relatively high urbanization rate of residential population. (2) The urbanization rate of registered population had a significant positive correlation with non-agricul~ral opportunities. Thus the urbanization rates of registered population in the coastal area, areas along the Yangtze River and in northern border area were relative higher than that in the inland area. The immigrant floating population mostly gathered in urban agglomeration area and provincial capital cities. As a result, in these areas and cities, urbanization rates of residential population were usually higher than that of registered population. (3) In China, two thirds of cities and counties had a relatively low urbanization level. The urbanization rates of