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中文摘要：
以国家创新能力理论为基础，运用分布动态学方法和1963-2006年的历史数据，分析36个主要经济体创新能力分布的收敛性，揭示国家层面创新差异演变的基本规律。基于核密度函数和马尔科夫链的实证分析表明，不同于收入分布的“双峰模式”，跨国创新分布呈现“单峰模式”和收敛趋势：跨国创新分布动态演变具有显著的“马太效应”，呈现俱乐部收敛态势，不同国家创新俱乐部之间的流动性低于俱乐部内部的流动性，相邻俱乐部之间的转移概率高于差距较大的俱乐部。
英文摘要：
Based on the theory of national innovative capacity, this paper analyses the convergence and divergence of the distribution of the innovative capacity in 36 major economies, using the distribution dynamics model and the long-term historical data, in order to find out how the innovative difference between one country and another develops. An analysis of kernel density curve and Markov chain shows that, the distribution of innovation cross countries displays a ＂single-peak pattern＂, rather than the ＂twin peaks pattern＂ typical of income distribution, and the convergence is evident; there is significant ＂Matthew Effect＂ in the dynamic evolution of the distribution of innovation cross countries; the international mobility between different levels of innovation clubs is lower than that within the innova- tion clubs, and the transition between adjacent clubs is more likely to occur than that between those far away from each other.
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Measuring international trade-related technology spillover: a composite approach of network analysis
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