中文摘要：

本文运用结构向量自回归模型，将海湾六国产出的同步波动性和遭受冲击的对称性联系起来。研究发现，1977—2006年间海湾六国遭受需求冲击的对称程度要高于供给冲击，对称性的需求冲击对维持六国经济周期的同步性既显著又重要，而供给冲击的对称性对维持六国经济周期的同步性几乎没有作用；另外，本文没有发现供给和需求冲击的对称性对经济周期的同步波动有滞后影响。本文实证研究的结果对于海湾六国未来单一货币的汇率制度选择具有重要的参考意义。

英文摘要：

This paper innovatively connects the co - movements of outputs of six GCC countries with the symmetry of shocks through a smart data structure and a panel regression model. The empirical results show that during 1977 -2006,the symmetry of demand shocks in GCC countries is higher than that of supply shocks, and the effects of symmetric demand shocks is significant and important to maintain the business cycle synchronization of six countries, but the symmetry of demand shocks nearly have no effects on the business cycle synchronization. Besides ,the lag impact of symmetric demand and supply shocks on their business cycle synchronization has not been found in the paper. Therefore, the empirical findings of this research are of significant reference value for the choice of the exchange rate regime for the GCC countries.