中文摘要：

为了提高公交到站信息服务系统的可移植性、降低到站时间预测误差、增强到站时间信息服务的可获取性，对如何构建公共汽车到站信息服务系统进行设计。以标准化AVL数据输入为基础，阐述了4项关键技术：制定AVL数据采集内容标准；建立基于行程时间的到站时间预测算法；建立基于事件驱动的到站时间预测控制方法；提出电子站牌与手机相结合的联合信息发布模式。选取实际线路在计算机上实现上述设计成果，并对比分析事件驱动和时间驱动两种控制方法在降低预测误差方面的效果。结果证实，事件驱动控制方法对到站时间预测误差的改善效果比时间驱动控制方法显著。

英文摘要：

To improve service performance, reduce estimated bus arriv- al time errors, and enhance reliability of bus information service sys- tem, this paper introduces the bus information system design. Based on the input of standardized AVL （Automatic Vehicle Location） data, four crucial techniques are introduced including： defining the standards of AVL data content, developing the bus arrival time estimation method based on travel time, setting up an event-driven control method for bus arriving time prediction, and proposing a combined information dissem- ination mode with electronic board and mobile phone. The designed sys- tem is implemented by a computer program into a real case to compare the performance in reducing the estimated bus arrival time by both the event-driven control model and the time-driven control model. The pre- diction results show that the event-driven control model does have a sig- nificant improvement in the estimating error reduction than the time-driven control model does.