中文摘要：

针对传统空气动力学模型在预测飞机四维轨迹时误差较大的问题，提出了一种基于历史轨迹集的四维轨迹预测方法。首先，该方法运用空管基础数据、运动学模型、气象模型、管制意图计算创建历史轨迹集，然后使用实时的雷达航迹配对信息、气象信息、空中位置报、移交预达报等激励信息通过算法对历史轨迹集进行更新。最后，通过查询历史轨迹集预测完整的飞机四维飞行轨迹。仿真试验表明该方法比传统的空气动力学模型具有更好的实用性、准确性。

英文摘要：

In order to improve the large errors of traditional aerodynamic 4-D trajectory prediction models, a method based on the set of historical trajectory was proposed. Firstly, the method makes use of the air traffic management basic data, a kinematic model, a meteoro logic model and control intention to establish the set of historical trajectory. Then, utilizing the radar tracks information, the aerodynamic information,ARP,EST to update it. Lastly,the whole 4-D trajectory was got by the set of historical trajectory. Simulation proves the a- vailability and accuracy of this method.