本文借助RS和GIS技术,借鉴和应用景观生态学的有关理论和研究方法,分析了黑河流域土地利用从1976年至2000年的动态变化,讨论了土地利用变化的驱动机制。在此基础上,以率定的模型参数为基础,应用SWAT模型分别对2000年和1976年两期土地利用下的黑河流域1991~2000年非点源污染负荷进行模拟,由此确定土地利用变化引起的流域非点源污染负荷的变化。从控制非点源污染的角度,分析了土地利用变化趋势的合理性。研究结果可为研究区土地资源的合理开发利用、生态环境的保护及区域的持续发展规划提供科学依据。
Using RS and GIS techniques and related landscape ecology methods,this paper analyzes the dynamic changes of land uses in the Heihe river basin during 1976-2000,focusing on a detailed discussion of various driving forces of land-use caused change(LUCC).After verified and calibrated,a SWAT model was used to simulate the land uses in 2000 and 1976,and by assuming these two land-use conditions the non-point source pollution load from 1991 to 2000 was simulated.Aiming at effective pollution control,the LUCC effect on the non-point source pollution in this basin was studied,and the simulated LUCC trend was discussed.This work may provide a technical basis for development and utilization of land resources,eco-environmental protection and regional sustainable development planning.