运用实地调研数据,采用Heckman两阶段估计法,从稳定性、交易权、抵押权三个方面分析了产权完整程度对林业生产投入的影响,并以此为基础对林权改革的绩效进行评价。结果表明林权制度改革提高了农户对林地产权稳定的预期,因此他们更倾向于选择可持续的方式经营林地。现阶段,认为有林地抵押权农户的生产行为并未显著异于其他农户。然而,赋予农户林地抵押权则会促使他们增加在林地上的投入。通过分析表明,林权制度改革在促进林业生产力解放方面起到了积极的作用。但只有与各项配套改革同时全面开展,及时为农户加快林业生产和经营提供有力的政策扶持、科技服务、信息咨询、法律保障、产品流通和投融资等社会化服务,才能确保集体林权制度改革的成功和改革成果的巩固,最大限度地发挥集体林权制度改革的整体效应。
Heckman Selective Model was applied in the paper. We analyzed the impacting factors of forestry investment, especially focused on the property rights’ impacts. The property factors include: stability, transfer rights and mortgage rights. The results showed that when the farmers expected long stability of forestland management, they will arrange forestry production in a sustainable way. Though the transfer right showed no effect in the empirical model. Mortgage rights may induces farmers invest more on the forestland. Finally, the paper gave an conclusion about the performance of the tenure reform. The tenure reform was considered to have a positive effect on releasing the forestry productivity. However, some synthetically reforms should be conducted, in order to ensure the successes of the reform and to consolidate the achieved reform result. These synthetically reforms should be carried out: to provide policy support, science and technology service and information consultation; to improve law guarantee system, to establish forestry product circulation system, invest and financing system, and so on.