中文摘要：

根据2006～2013年渤海海域水质监测数据资料，采用富营养化指数法对渤海海域富营养化状况的变化趋势实施评价，并通过回归分析法对未来5a内富营养化风险概率进行预测。结果表明，渤海海域富营养化高风险区主要分布在普兰店湾、辽东湾、永定新河口、海河口、马颊河口、莱州湾底等区域，主要贡献因子是DIN、PO4-P、COD。建议对主要贡献因子采取总量控制措施，以期避免富营养化的发生或降低其发生概率。

英文摘要：

Based on the monitoring data of Bohai sea water quality from 2006 to 2013, Bohai eutrophication status and changing trend were evaluated using eutrophication index method. Then the eutrophication risk probability in the next five years was predicted through regression analysis method. The results showed that the high risk eutrophication areas in Bohai Sea were mainly distributed in Pulandian Bay, Liaodong Bay, Yongdingxin Estuary, Haihe Estuary, Majia Es- tuary, the bottom of Laizhou Bay. The dominant contribution factors were inorganic nitrogen, active phosphate and chemical oxygen demand. In order to avoid the occurrence of eutrophication or reduce its occurrence probability, the total quantity control measures of dominant contribution factors should be put forward in the high risk zonations of eu- trophication.