中文摘要：

针对变化环境下的非一致性年径流序列，提出了基于跳跃分析的水资源评价方法。该方法假设非一致性年径流序列由相对一致的随机性成分和非一致的确定性成分两部分组成，采用水文变异综合诊断方法识别与检验年径流序列的变异点，并用变异前后序列均值之间的差值描述序列的确定性成分；根据时间序列分析的分解与合成理论，对年径流序列的随机性成分进行提取，采用有约束加权适线法对其进行频率计算；将确定性的预测值和随机性的设计值进行合成，得到过去、现在和未来不同时期年径流合成序列的频率分布。对无定河流域进行了实例验证，结果表明年径流量序列在1971年前后跳跃变异显著；多年平均地表水资源量在过去（1971年以前）、现在（2000年）和未来（2010年）三个时期的评价结果分别为：15．766×10^8m^3、10．228×10^8m^3、10．228×10^8m^3，未来与现在相同，而未来与过去相比减小约35．1％，这种情形对无定河流域水资源的开发利用极为不利。

英文摘要：

Owing to the effects of changing climate and frequent human activities, the physical condition of basin runoff formation has greatly been changed. The annual runoff series for water resource assessment calculation lost their consistency. Aiming at inconsistent annual runoff series, the assessment method of water resources based on jump analysis was proposed, which could be used to derive the surface water resources from past, pre- sent to future in changing environments. In this method, on the assumption that inconsistent annual runoff series were composed of relatively consistent random component and inconsistent deterministic component, firstly the alteration point of annual runoff series was identified and tested by using a comprehensive diagnosis method of hydrologic alteration, and the deterministic component was described by the difference between annual runoff series means before and after the alteration point; secondly according to the theory of decomposition and composition in time series analysis, the random component was extracted and its frequency calculation was made by using the constrained and weighted fitting method; lastly the deterministic forecasting value and stochastic design value were synthesized, and the past and present as well as future frequency distributions of annual runoff series were g logical ained. The method aims at the same random law for past hydrological frequency checking and future hydro- frequency forecasting. The environment alterations tic law. In this point of view, the method can be seen as of both past and future are reflected by the determinisa hydrological frequency calculation method which can adapt the changing environment. The method is applicable for both the observed annual runoff series and the reduction series. The example about Wudinghe basin was attached, and the results show that Wudinghe annual runoff series had a significant alteration point in 1971; the assessment results of long-term average surface water resources from past（before 1971 year）, prese