中文摘要：

气候变化引起的地面气溶胶浓度变化与区域空气质量密切相关。本文利用＂国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划＂（Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project,ACCMIP）中4个模式的试验数据分析了RCP8.5情景下2000~2100年气候变化对中国气溶胶浓度的影响。结果显示,在人为气溶胶排放固定在2000年、仅考虑气候变化的影响时,2000~2100年气候变化导致中国北部地区（31°N~45°N,105°E~122°E）硫酸盐、有机碳和黑碳气溶胶分别增加28%、21%和9%,硝酸盐气溶胶在中国东部地区减少30%。气候变化对细颗粒物（PM_（2.5））浓度的影响有显著的季节变化特征,冬季PM_（2.5）浓度在中国东部减少15%,这主要是由硝酸盐气溶胶在冬季的显著减少造成的;夏季PM_（2.5）浓度在中国北部地区增加16%,而长江以南地区减少为9%,这可能与模式模拟的未来东亚夏季风环流的增强有关。

英文摘要：

Changes in surface layer aerosol concentrations induced by climate change are important for understanding regional air quality. In this study, the impact of climate change on surface-layer aerosol concentrations over East Asia were investigated using multi-model results from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project（ACCMIP） under the RCP8.5 scenario during 2000–2100. With anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursors kept at year 2000 levels, the annual mean concentrations of surface-layer sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon over northern China（31°N–45°N, 105°E–122°E） were simulated to increase by 28%, 21%, and 9%, respectively, owing to climate change over 2000–2100. Compared to that in 2000, annual mean surface-layer nitrate concentration in 2100 over eastern China was simulated to decrease by 30% by climate change alone. The climate-induced changes in fine particulate matter（PM_（2.5）） concentrations were simulated to have large seasonal variation. Due to significant decreases in nitrate concentrations in the winter, wintertime PM_（2.5） concentrations over eastern China were simulated to decrease by 15% over 2000–2100. Furthermore, the changes in summertime PM_（2.5） concentrations during 2000–2100 were found to have different patterns in northern and southern China; PM_（2.5） concentrations in northern China would increase by 16%, while those in southern China would decrease by 9%.