中文摘要：

文章基于流通业对国民经济的重要作用和新形势下上海市流通业转型发展的要求，建立了包含流通业增长规模、增长质量、现代化程度、城乡一体化水平、国际影响力五个方面的上海市流通业发展能力评价指标体系；利用因子分析法求解指标权重和方面权重，分析了其实际经济意义；测算出可以实现流通业发展能力年度纵向比较和城市间横向比较的流通业发展能力指数，并以上海市、北京市为例说明了该指数的应用。

英文摘要：

Based on the important role of circulation industry in national economy and the requirements for transformational development of Shanghai＇ s circulation industry under the new situation, the paper builds an evaluation index system on Shanghai＇s development potential of circulation industry from five aspects： growth scale, growth quality, modernization degree, urban and rural integration level and international influenee. Factor analysis method is used to calculate the weight of the basic indexes and aspect indexes, and the practical economic meanings are analyzed. The development potential index is estimated and applied in the annual longitudinal comparison of one city and the horizontal comparison among cities, by taking Shanghai and Beijing as examples to illustrate the application of the index.