中文摘要：

中国粮食供求变化不仅影响国内粮食安全，且与世界粮食市场的互动关系日益明显。考虑未来人口、经济和资源状况的同时，有必要纳入一些新的情景以突显全球化背景下中国粮食供求变化趋势。模拟结果表明，人民币升值将刺激全球粮食生产和贸易，而对中国玉米和豆类供求均衡的负面影响较大；全球生物燃料发展将扩大全球粮食供求缺口，且世界粮食供求格局变动可能使中国未来国际粮源发生转变；国内粮食补贴的提高对长期的粮食增产效应显著，但粮食供求结构矛盾日益突出。为实现中国粮食供求平衡，应完善国内粮食市场机制，调整国内粮食供求结构；充分利用国际粮食市场，灵活调节国内粮食余缺。

英文摘要：

China＇s grain supply-demand variation affects its domestic grain security, and obviously interacts with the world food market. Given the population, economy and resources in the future, it is necessary to take some new scenarios into account to underline the tendency of China＇s grain supply and demand under globalization. The results show that： the appreciation of RMB stimulates global grain production and trade, while it has some negative impacts on China＇s corn and beans; global biofuel development widens the gap between global grain supply and demand, and the change of world grain pattern may make a shift on China＇s international grain resources; the effect of China＇s grain subsidies on grain production increase is significant in the long run, but the acute structure imbalance continues in grain market. It is essential to improve grain market mechanism, adjust domestic grain supply-demand structure, and exploit international grain market to attain Chinese grain equilibrium.